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TO : Minister of Foreign Affairs: Dr N Dlamini Zuma

FROM : Directorate: West Asia: PR Nixon

STATUS : Policy recommendation

DATE : 23 August 2006

SUBJECT : South Africa’s potential role as peace-broker in Sri Lanka

With the recent upsurge in violence, the possibility of South Africa acting as a peace-broker in the Sri Lankan Tamil Tiger conflict has been raised. The following is a brief synopsis of the conflict and our recommendations regarding South Africa’s role.

History of the conflict

Tensions between the majority Sihalese (74% of population) and the Tamils (13% of the population) are long standing. The recent conflict has its roots shortly after Sri Lankan independence (1948), when a period of Sinhalese nationalism marginalised and disenfranchised the Tamil minority. The main Tamil rebel group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), was formed in 1976 as tensions increased. 1983 was a high point in the conflict – after a number of soldiers were killed in an LTTE ambush, several hundred Tamils were killed in anti-Tamil riots. Fighting has in general been bloody and indiscriminate. The first significant progress in peace talks resulted in an Indian peacekeeping force being deployed in 1987. However the Indian troops became targets in the violence and withdrew in 1990. A breakthrough was finally made in 2002 when a permanent ceasefire was brokered by Norway. No progress has been made since on peace talks and sporadic violence has broken out.

The rebels initially were demanding an independent state in the north and east of the country, where the Tamil population is concentrated. This demand was reduced during the ceasefire agreements to an autonomous region under a federal system, though talk of independence has risen again.

The Tamil Tigers are listed as a terrorist organisation by several countries, including the United States and recently the European Union. They have used both suicide bombers and child soldiers in their campaign. The LTTE was however officially recognised and unbanned in Sri Lanka in terms of the 2002 ceasefire agreement.

Current situation

Tensions have been rising between the government and Tamil Tigers since the beginning of the year, with frequent battles taking place. Several clashes in the northeast have occurred in the last month. On the 14^th August a bomb, apparently targeted at the Pakistani ambassador, exploded in Colombo and killed 7 people. South Africa’s cricket team, which was playing in a triangular series at the time, was withdrawn due to the increased security risk. The ceasefire is still in effect, however it is in danger of crumbling.

Relations with Sri Lanka

South Africa enjoys strong ties with Sri Lanka – Sri Lanka was a key ally in the anti-apartheid struggle. Our links are primarily on a cultural and sporting basis – trade with Sri Lanka is not significant. On the sporting side, cricket is of course the primary focus, with very strong relations enjoyed between our two countries. The Sri Lankan team will be embarking on a tour of South Africa in coming months. On a trade basis, our exports to Sri Lanka totalled R185 million for 2005, ranking it at number 75. A large portion of our imported tea is sourced from Sri Lanka. South Africa also has a fair sized resident Tamil population.

South Africa’s potential role as peace-broker

With its considerable experience in conflict resolution, South Africa could play a constructive role in peace talks. Success would create significant regional and international goodwill. Although South Africa has no key strategic interests in Sri Lanka itself, success would undoubtedly benefit South Africa-India relations, a key partner in terms of IBSA. The cost of failure could however be high – the LTTE were implicated in the assassination of the Indian Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, in 1991. This was after India’s unsuccessful peace-keeping effort in Sri Lanka, which made India a target of the Tamil Tigers. Unsuccessful negotiations or perceived biases could possibly result in unrest amongst South African based Tamils. The likelihood of success should therefore be a key consideration in the question of whether South Africa should play a role as a peace-broker.

Currently the prospects for a successful peace deal are dim. The Norwegian brokered peace talks in 2003 failed after only 3 months. The Tamil Tigers withdrew from these talks, saying that they were being marginalised. Tensions are currently escalating, rather than being cooled-off by the ceasefire. Both sides appear to be gearing for war again. The recent comments to the BBC by Tamil Tiger leader, Mr Elililan, that “from the beginning we have known war is the only solution”, strengthen this view. Propaganda, accusations and recriminations abound on both sides. The Tamils accuse the government of state-terrorism, and the government accuses the Tamils of terrorism and recruiting child soldiers. Constructive talks would be unlikely in this atmosphere of accusation and counter-accusation.

There is unlikely to be any negative impact on South Africa if it does not involve itself in this situation. Trade would likely decrease if the conflict escalates, but this should have no serious economic consequences for South Africa. Relations in the region are already strong and no specific request for South African involvement has been made. Norway has previously acted as peace-broker in this conflict and could be called on again if required.

Recommendation

Based on the unlikely chance of successful peace-talks, we recommend that South Africa does not at this present time involve itself in this conflict. If tensions subside and both sides start once again seeking a peaceful resolution, this position could be reconsidered. The gain in regional and international goodwill would be significant if South Africa was able to play a role in successful negotiations. Due to the risks of failed negotiations, we would however recommend that South Africa only involve itself if specifically requested by the concerned parties.