Pete’s blog

Going to write about something highly topical for a change – the great ANC succession debate. In a country with an entrenched two-thirds party there isn’t that much excitement around election time – everyone knows who is going to win, everyone knows who the president is going to be. The only speculation possible is what the voter turn-out will be, what the weather will be like and whether the PAC will get enough votes for a seat in parliament. But when that party has its own internal elections, finally the political journalists get to dust off their notebooks and indulge in truly wild speculation. Our poor journalists have looked across at America with their massive primaries, the plethora of candidates and the tense public debates and they have turned green with envy. A year of primaries down and still another year to go when they can measure the two eventual presidential candidates off against each other – heaven! I can almost pity the poor guys here that have to find a story in the opaque, “don’t-stick-your-head-out-or-it’ll-get-chopped-off” election politics of the ANC…

But onto my take on what’s been going on and what to expect in the next few days.

First and foremost, you have to understand how the ANC operates. The ANC is a party. People belong to the party and the party always comes first. The simplest way to explain this is that the ANC runs this country, not Thabo Mbeki. Thabo Mbeki has been chosen to represent the ANC as its and the country’s president. Listen next time to how any candidate hopeful continually defers to the ANC (even Jacob Zuma) – “Oh great ANC, I will only do what you bid me to do! I live to serve!” This is THE most important thing to understand when looking at South African politics. And even more importantly, this is not what makes us different to other well-governed countries – it is what makes us the same! America is not run by George Bush, it is currently run by the Republicans. George Bush was chosen to represent the Republicans because his ideals and beliefs are close to the Republican policies and principles. In fact America has taken this even further – America is not really run by the Republicans, it is actually run by the Republicans AND the Democrats (in the Congress, Senate and at state level), career bureaucrats (they’re everywhere) and a massive number of lawyers, lobbyists and lavatory cleaners. All of whom will tell you that they are just serving their country. The reason South Africa looks so different is that the ANC dominates almost all structures, so all you see when you look at the government is the ANC. In America the true government is glossed over with the veneer of the great ‘Republican/Democrat’ struggle.

So what does this all mean for our future? Well what I’m trying to get across is that the President is important, but he actually can’t really do that much on his own, because he is just one guy amongst party policies and bureaucratic lag. If Zuma gets in (and the odds are currently heavily in his favour), don’t expect him to wreck the country in 5 years à la Zim. We are very different to Zimbabwe in that regard – Zimbabwe is run by Mugabe, for Mugabe. ZANU-PF is the representative of Mugabe, Mugabe is not the representative of ZANU-PF. You want to know how much damage Zuma can do? I have the perfect example. How much damage do you think the following president could do? A man who thinks he knows what’s best for everyone and is aloof. A man who refuses to acknowledge the largest problem facing his country, believing it to be a conspiracy and not a real threat, and believes that the second biggest problem facing the country has been blown out of proportion by the media and scared whites. A man who distrusts the media and frequently criticises them in public. A man who does not tolerate criticism or opposition to his beliefs and has removed people below him who have acted on their own initiative. A man who has blocked probes into corruption, protected subordinates who are suspected of being corrupt, and in all probability was fully aware of the kick-backs paid in the arms deal. Sound familiar? Take the two biggest issues that Mbeki denies – HIV/AIDS and crime. HIV/AIDS has cost us and will continue to cost us several percent of GDP. We could have maybe slowed the infection to around 15-20% of the population or even less, instead we are stuck with 30% of the population that will continue to need medical treatment and will not be 100% productive. Crime has and continues to chase away (and sometimes kill) the best and the brightest people, as well as foreign investment. I’m not an economist, but as an estimate of the cost of these two factors, a 3% loss of GDP is a very plausible. 7% GDP growth compared to 4%? Yes, ouch, that hurts! But think about Zimbabwe now – 3% is really quite mild. South Africa has a highly developed economy, a free media (much to the ANC’s dismay), a strong civil society and a strong legal system. All these things have worked to limit the possible damage. The TAC and Zachi Ahmed went to court and forced the government to acknowledge the HIV epidemic and to provide anti-retrovirals. Business formed groups like Business Against Crime, and continuously lobbied government to tackle crime. The media kept shoving HIV prevalence and crime stats in the public and government’s face. From within the ANC two champions even emerged that briefly gave hope for HIV/AIDS sufferers – unfortunately Mr. “I’ll-tolerate-no-one-upstaging-me” Mbeki quickly axed the offending deputy health minister (though Mlambo-Ngcuka is still deputy president…) I’m not saying that it is impossible for Zuma to do any damage – just that it is very difficult and will take a very long time, and there will be plenty of people fighting him every step of the way.

Oh dear, I seem to have gone on a bit about why the next president cannot be any worse than our current one. Will continue this next week by looking a little bit at the actual ANC election process and who the likely winners will be.