Pete’s blog

Another year, another African country plagued by political turmoil and dodgy elections. The sad thing is that all the warning signs were there, why did no-one intervene a month ago? Everyone seems to be scrambling to mediate and calm things down now, but it is too late. Everyone, except of course the African Union who is still trying to decide if it should do anything or if this is just an internal Kenyan matter unworthy of attention. To be honest I am getting pretty tired of hearing about this allegedly solely African custom of not criticising leaders and not interfering in ‘internal’ state matters. I am sure if they weren’t so worried about being killed or working out which country to flee to next, most Africans would also express their impatience with this attitude. In Europe you used to have your head cut off for criticising your leader and had no say in who your leader was, but eventually everyone got tired of being bossed around by people who only had their own interests at heart, and cut off their heads instead – thus was modern democracy born. Criticism of leaders is vitally important – if someone is doing something wrong, you should say something and if possible do something. One leader’s ego is far less important than a single person’s suffering. How can you let a thousand people suffer just to avoid offending someone? Africa still has a very important lesson to learn – that an injury to one is an injury to all (with apologies to COSATU). Kenya’s political violence will result in refugees moving to surrounding countries, less foreign investment in the area, and money and resources being wasted on sorting out the mess, when it could have been spent elsewhere. The stability and wellbeing of your next door neighbour is not an internal matter.
What should have been done? When the rumours and allegation of potential vote rigging began, every single head of state in Africa should have phoned the leaders of both the main parties in Kenya and explained to them how important it was for them to respect the democratic process and the outcome of the election. When the allegations continued, a high level team should have visited Kenya and explained it again in person and visited the local electoral commission to ensure the procedures were sound. When the elections were held, an extra large contingent of international observers should have been organised that would have worked together with observers from the Kenyan parties.
So why didn’t this happen? First and most obviously – resources. The African Union is badly underfunded (by African countries as well as international countries), and is tied up fighting fires in other failed states. Maybe some more resources will be made available once Kenya collapses into a bloodbath, but don’t count on it. The international community will also insist on African countries having stable democracies before investing, but will not invest anything in supporting democracy. Would the AU have got anything if they had asked the international community for funds to embark on a large scale observation mission to the Kenyan elections?
Secondly, how interested are African leaders in democracy? There are very few third phase democracies in Africa – first phase being a new democracy, second phase having a peaceful democratic transition between rival parties and third phase having a second such transition. South Africa is still only a first phase democracy (unless you count the NP to ANC transition). Ghana is a second phase democracy (the current head of the AU) and Kenya was a second phase democracy, but I think they have just gone back to square one. I’m not sure who the third phase democracies are in Africa, but I would have to guess at Botswana and Senegal. But what this means is that the majority of leaders in Africa aren’t to confident in the democratic process and wonder if enforcing democracy in other countries might not hurt their chances in their own next elections.
Thirdly, there is the cry wolf syndrome. If the election is going to be closely contested (or even if it isn’t), all you need to do is loudly declare that the election was rigged. Even if the election was completely free and fair – you immediately create doubt over the elected leader’s legitimacy and raise you own credibility as an aggrieved party. The AU would probably end up running to every election to investigate claims of vote rigging. And maybe this is the ultimate solution – maybe the AU should go to every election. Put together a large, credible, permanent election observation team that will attend every Africa election. And that brings us back to the same excuses why nothing was done about Kenya – resources and a lack of commitment.

Meanwhile Kenya is in trouble. Maybe the Kenyans will themselves learn to compromise and come to some sort of agreement – but I think the egos of the two leaders are too large and the people are too fired up for this to happen. Outside mediation is desperately needed. Ideally all the surrounding countries and the head of the AU (Ghana) should pay a visit to Kenya and try and work something out. Unfortunately two of the neighbouring countries are Sudan and Somalia… but Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia might be able to pull something off.

Here’s hoping that Kenya survives without too much damage.