Pete’s blog

I have to start this post by apologising to my loyal readers – I have been conducting a social experiment with you without your knowledge. And I am very disappointed, you all failed the experiment.
My last two emails have been about HIV and AIDS and I have received not a single comment from anyone about them. In contrast my “Run for the hills the country is falling apart” post is one of the most popular and has a stack of comments. Talk about crime and everyone has something to say – people share their experiences, talk about what happened to their friend, or complain about how the government isn’t doing enough. Talk about HIV and everyone shuts up.
Let’s have a look at the numbers. The murder rate in South Africa is approximately 10 000 people a year, so 10 000 people a year are killed by crime (crime stats report). The estimated number of deaths from AIDS related illnesses varies between 150 000 to 350 000 people a year. The consensus appears to be around 300 000 people a year at the moment. This is 30 times the number of people killed by crime! This is roughly the same number of contact crimes a year in South Africa (including rape, assault, attempted murder and robbery). So you are as likely to die from HIV as you are of experiencing crime directly.
Think about this. If someone says that they have been a victim of crime, what would your response be? Some sympathy, support, a bit of solidarity, a sharing of experiences? If someone starts discussing crime, you would probably have something to say. Every one of you living in South Africa has done something to protect yourself against crime. You have security at your house and don’t trust strangers. You go on crime-prevention courses and teach your children how to avoid crime. Yes?
Ok, now think about this. If someone was to tell you that they have just found out that they are HIV positive, what would your response be? And be honest with yourself here. Tell them they were stupid and reckless? Tell them they have no morals? Blame them for sleeping around? Alienate them, stigmatise them, cut them out of your life? Think about how society would probably respond to that person. But is discovering that you are HIV positive any less traumatic than being a victim of contact crime? Do you discuss HIV with your friends? And ask yourself what you have done to protect yourself against HIV. Do you have safe sex? Do you have sex with strangers? Have you been on an HIV awareness course? Have you taught your children about sex and HIV?
To have a deeper look at the numbers, I am using a slightly older report from 2002 – the Nelson Mandela/HSRC Study on HIV/AIDS – but it is a good one and a good place to start. They estimated that 15.6% of South Africans were infected with HIV in 2002 – this means at least 1 in 7 people are infected. It is almost a certainty that you have met a person who is HIV-positive and it is quite likely that you know someone personally who is HIV-positive. “Rubbish,” you say, “I don’t know any poor, black people!” Firstly most of you who are reading this are in the 25 to 34 years age category – the prevalence amongst this age group is the highest, 28.4% for 25-29 years and 24.1% for 30-34 years. So in fact if you are in this age group, 1 in 4 of your peers is HIV-positive. Are you still sure you don’t know anyone who is HIV-positive? So you are white and don’t have any black friends – yes, your odds are a little lower. The prevalence amongst whites is estimated at 6.2% versus 18.4% for Africans. But 6.2% is still 1 in 16, do you have more than 16 friends? And unfortunately I can’t work out what the prevalence amongst whites in the 25 to 34 years age group is, but doing a bit of extrapolation I would guess it is about 10%. 10%?! Those are very good odds that someone you know is HIV-positive. Slept with more than 10 girls? Did you use a condom every time? And don’t forget, this report is 5 years old and HIV has continued to spread.

So I challenge all of you to start talking about HIV as much as you talk about crime. And if you find out someone is HIV-positive, how about giving them some sympathy, support, a bit of solidarity and sharing some of your experiences.